基于Logistic模型估算水资源污染经济损失研究  

Estimation of Economic Loss Caused by Water Resource Pollution Based on the Logistic Model

作　　者：李嘉竹[1] 刘贤赵[1] 李宝江[1] 郭斌[2] 

机构地区：[1]鲁东大学地理与规划学院,山东烟台264025 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2009年第9期1667-1675,共9页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家自然基金项目(40101005);山东省自然科学基金项目(Y2007E12)

摘　　要：基于污染物的环境污染损失机理模型及环境价值相关理论,建立了以水污染损失率为基础的水污染经济损失Logistic估算模型。通过对Logistic方程曲线进行定量分析,根据曲线变化特征点和特征值,提出了物理意义明确的水体功能损害程度划分标准,即以综合污染损失率1%、20%、50%及80%为分级点,将水污染对水体功能的损害程度分为无损害、轻微损害、中度损害、重度损害和功能丧失5个等级,并将水体质量和功能损害程度与水环境状况发展过程相对应,将水污染发展过程分为安全阶段、初始阶段、发展阶段、恶化阶段和衰退阶段5个时期。以烟台市工业水质实测资料为例,分别建立了COD、石油类、悬浮物和挥发酚污染物水污染经济损失的Logistic模拟曲线及其与实测值之间的关系,计算了工业水污染引起的经济损失量。结果表明,Logistic模型用于计算水资源污染经济损失是可行的,模型有效性指数大于0.97,P值达极显著水平。总体上烟台市工业水功能受损严重,单项污染损失率以COD和悬浮物两项指标最大,石油类和挥发酚的污染损失率均低于1.5%;综合污染损失率2005年为53.71%,污染程度为重度损害,污染状况已进入恶化阶段;其它各年份综合污染损失率均在80%以上,工业用水功能丧失,水污染状况已发展至衰退阶段。On the basis of the mechanism model of pollution loss, environment value theory and the concept of rate of pollution loss （RPL）, the Logistic estimation model for economic loss from water pollution was established. Through the quantitative analysis to the model curve, damage degree classification of water use function was put forward based on the characteristic points of the curve and their values with the values of RPL of 1% , 20% , 50% and 80%. At the same time, correlated with water quality and degree of function damage, five stages of the water pollution development were also proposed. Therefore, it provides the quantitative criterion of water exploitation and utilizations to the official department. As a case study, the economic loss of water pollution was evaluated using industrial water quality data of Yantai city in 2001 -2007. Logistic curves of economic losses caused by pollutants including COD, petroleum, suspended substance and volatile phenol and the relationships between their curves and measured values were established, respectively. The economic losses from industrial water pollution were also calculated. Some useful results indicated that the Logistic model used to calculate the water pollution economic loss was feasible, whose effectiveness index was beyond 0.97 （ P = 0. 000 1 ）. Overall, industrial water function in Yantai city was severely damaged, with the biggest RPL for COD and suspended substance and the lower RPL for petroleum and volatile phenol. Comprehensive RPL in 2005 was 53.71%, which was in serious damage rank and entered the stage of deterioration. Comprehensive RPLs in other years were all beyond 80%, and industrial water function was lost because water pollution situation developed to recession.

关 键 词：LOGISTIC模型 水资源污染经济损失 污染损失率 损害程度分级 

分 类 号：X522[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X196