区域洪水资源利用综合风险评价  

Integrative risk evaluation of regional floodwater utilization

作　　者：方红远[1] 王银堂[2] 胡庆芳[2] 

机构地区：[1]扬州大学水利科学与工程学院,江苏扬州225009 [2]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源研究所,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水科学进展》2009年第5期726-731,共6页Advances in Water Science

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2006BAB14B02)~~

摘　　要：鉴于水库、蓄滞洪区以及河渠槽蓄等区域洪水资源利用方式及其防洪风险产生方面的特征,针对形成区域洪水资源利用风险的各子区及各利用措施的风险项,采用风险等级与风险度相综合的方法加以评估。依据子区和利用措施风险项与区域洪水资源利用总风险的结构关系,运用模糊评价原理和层次分析法,建立了基于风险评价模糊特征的区域洪水资源利用综合风险评价的层次结构模型,并阐述了模型的结构及其求解步骤,给出了风险等级与风险度的模糊合成计算方法以及各风险项考虑主客观因素的权重确定方法。以海河流域北三河水系的洪水资源利用风险分析为例,计算了该区域洪水资源利用的综合风险值。According to the characteristics of the regional floodwater utilization measures such as reservoirs, flood detention areas and canal storages and the risk generating mechanism of these floodwater utilization measures, the analysis method syn- thesizing risk rate and risk degree is used for computing the flood risk from the floodwater utilization of sub-regions and the var- ious utilizing measures. Based on the relationship between the risk of the regional floodwater utilization and the risk from the floodwater utilizing measures of sub-regions, this paper proposes the mathematical model considering the fuzzy property of the flood risk assessment for evaluating the integrative risk of the floodwater utilization by using the fuzzy theory and the analytic hierarchy process, details with the hierarchical structure and the solution procedures of the model, the synthetic analysis tech- nique of the risk rate and risk degree and the method for identifying the weights of fuzzy evaluation factors. Finally, taking the Beisanhe watershed in Haihe River Basin as example, the integrative risk rate is computed using the proposed model for evalu- ating risk in the regional floodwater utilization.

关 键 词：洪水资源 防洪 洪水利用措施 综合风险率 模糊评价 北三河水系 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]