基于风险的劣化系统最优检测策略  

Optimal inspection policy for deteriorating system based on risk

作　　者：谭林[1] 程志君[1] 郭波[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学信息系统与管理学院,长沙410073

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2009年第9期108-114,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

摘　　要：建立基于Gamma过程的退化模型,在此基础上研究劣化系统的最优检测策略.提出一类基于风险的最优检测模型,该模型以风险为优化目标,将系统检修或故障带来的经济损失、对人员的影响、对环境的危害等统一到风险框架当中.为了有效的利用检测数据调整退化模型,基于贝叶斯方法对模型进行更新,算例表明更新后的模型能够更好的刻画系统在使用、检修过程中退化规律的变化.This article proposes a degradation model based on Gamma process; furthermore, a risk-based methodology for inspection modeling is presented. The inspection decision model finds a periodic inspection policy which minimizes the expected average risk per cycle with a risk frame which is comprised of the loss of system, the infection on people and the hazards with the potential to cause environment pollution. In order to adjust the degradati6n modeling according to the actual inspection results, a Bayesian updating method to improve the distribution is also proposed. The results presented in the case study show that the updating model can describe the degradation characteristics more accurate than the original model.

关 键 词：基于风险的检测 Gamma过程 贝叶斯更新 退化系统 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计] N945.17[理学—数学]