近五百年我国北方多雨年及其与温度背景的关联  

PLUVIAL YEARS AMONG THE LAST 500 YEARS IN NORTH CHINA AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO THE TEMPERATURE BACKGROUND

作　　者：张德二[1] 梁有叶[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《第四纪研究》2009年第5期863-870,共8页Quaternary Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(批准号:40599424)资助

摘　　要：将秦岭淮河以北、90°E以东的广大地区呈现"多雨"格局的年份称为"北方多雨年",其中105°N以东地域降水偏多的年份称为"北方东部多雨年"。综合利用历史文献记录、树木年轮代用记录和降水量资料来确定近五百年间的北方多雨年份和北方东部多雨年份,并建立历史年表(1470～2007年)。指出,在过去的538年间有北方多雨年97年(发生率18.0%)和北方东部多雨年174年(发生率32.3%),二者均呈现阶段性集中出现的特点,各有6个长约20～40年的频繁发生时段。在北半球和东亚气候相对温暖的时段内,北方多雨年和北方东部多雨年的发生频率明显地高于气候相对寒冷的时段,这意味着在未来气候变暖的背景下,我国的降水分布将可能出现北方多雨年频繁出现的情形。在最近百年的全球大范围急剧升温时段,北方多雨年的发生频率仅表现为高于冷时段而已,并未呈现随增温速率的加快而同步增高,这表明北方多雨年的发生率与温度背景并非简单的线性关系。The long-term evolution of pluvial year in North China and its relationship to the temperature background of the last 500 years are discussed in this paper. The year showing a “pluvial” pattern over the area north of the Qinling Mountain and the Huai River and east of 90°E is called “pluvial year in North China”. In particular, the year having abundant rainfall over the area east of 105°E is called “pluvial year in the east part of North China”. The chronological table of pluvial year of 1470-2007 in North China and its east part was built and confirmed by using historical literature records, tree-ring proxy and precipitation data. It shows that there were 97 and 174 pluvial years in North China and its east part,respectively： the former accounts for 18.0% of the last 538 years and the latter for 32.3%. The two sets of pluvial years have a phased concentration feature and 6 high-frequency stages with each stage lasting around 20 to 40 yeats. Concretely, the pluvial year in North China occurred during 1530-1576, 1592-1614, 1733-1781, 1843-1873, 1886-1896 and 1949- 1996,whereas the pluvial year in the east part of North China occurred during 1534-1576, 1644 - 1664, 1724-1761, 1840-1855, 1883-1898 and 1949-1964. The occurrence rate of pluvial year in North China and its east part is higher in the warm phase than that in the cold phase under the climatic background of 1470-2007 in the North Hemisphere and East Asia. This means that with the global warming, the frequency of pluvial year in North China will be higher in the future. However, the frequency of pluvial year in North China is only higher than the past cold phases for the 20^th century when the global warming speeded up, but does not increase synchronously with the warming rate. It indicates that the relationship between the frequency of pluvial year in North China and the temperature background is far from a simple linearity.

关 键 词：降水分布型 北方多雨年 近五百年 温度背景 全球变暖 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P468-322.4