退耕还林工程对农业生产影响的经济分析——退耕农户生计外推分析  

An Economic Analysis of the Agricultural Production Impacts of the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Project

作　　者：戴广翠[1] 赵金成[1] 蒋立[1] 张志涛[1] 梁丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家林业局经济发展研究中心,北京100714

出　　处：《林业经济》2009年第9期48-55,共8页Forestry Economics

基　　金：中澳合作项目"中国西北部省区可持续土地资源利用"项目的研究成果之一

摘　　要：文章分析了退耕还林对黄河流域农业生产的影响。研究结果发现,在退耕地上产品产出和价格等高折现率情况下,参与工程农户家庭收入的净现值依旧为正值,这表明退耕还林工程对黄河流域农业生产产生积极的影响,也说明只要退耕农户权益得到保护,就不会出现大面积复耕反弹现象。Land use changes induced by the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Project are found to produce positive effect on agricultural production in Yellow river basin. This result is found to be robust for a range of discount rates and output price projections. The net present value of the difference in farm profits with and without CCFP is found to be positive even when payments made under the Program are subtracted from with Program profits. Variations in the impact of CCFP on farm household net profits were observed. These results suggest that reversion to pre-Project land uses is unlikely as long as farmer＇s rights over converted land are well defined and defended.

关 键 词：退耕还林工程 农业生产 净现值 

分 类 号：F326.2[经济管理—产业经济]