VARMA模型在退耕还林工程粮食安全问题中的应用——以河北省为例  

A Model Based on VARMA in Cropland to Food Security Problem——A Case in Hebei Province

作　　者：姚清亮[1] 谷建才[2] 陆贵巧[2] 张东[2] 石丽丽[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京100083 [2]河北农业大学,保定071000

出　　处：《林业经济》2009年第9期78-80,共3页Forestry Economics

摘　　要：在充分搜集河北省退耕还林前后粮食生产和农民人均纯收入的动态变化有关情况的基础上,应用VARMA预测模型,预测了2006年到2015年河北省粮食生产情况,并用2006年和2007年的各项实际数据与预测数据进行对比核对。预测结果表明,各项数据指标的实际检验误差都在误差范围之内,说明所建立的预测模型具有较高的精确度,为今后制定和完善退耕还林后续政策提供了可靠依据。How effecting food security has been the focus of social concern,by collecting food production and per capita net income of farmers before and after returning farmland to forests of the dynamic changes, a model VARMA for predicting grain production of 2006 to 2015 was built,and used in 2006 and 2007 of the actual data to compare with the predicted data for check.Forecast results show that the data indicator of the actual test error is in the error range,and illustrate that the model has more accuracy.The study provides a reliable basis for the future to make and perfect the follow-up policy of returning farmland to forest,and has a certain practical significance for the guidance of the current results of the returning farmland to forest work.

关 键 词：河北省 退耕还林 粮食生产 预测 VARMA模型 

分 类 号：F326.20[经济管理—产业经济]