基于动态仿真和云模型的发电竞争参数设计研究  

Research on parameter design of competitive generation markets based on dynamic simulation and cloud model

作　　者：曾鸣[1] 甘德一[1] 崔拓伟[1] 田廓[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学工商管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2009年第20期7-11,17,共6页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70671041)

摘　　要：针对不确定性环境下的发电竞争市场参数设计问题,提出采用云模型拓展和描述市场需求长期增长率的模糊性,并基于发电容量动态仿真原理,对于需求增长率云模型中的各个云滴进行发电容量增长趋势模拟仿真,然后从可靠性和经济性的角度采用不同指标对仿真结果进行云模型展示和分析。算例表明该方法可以在不确定性环境下,充分考虑各种市场情形的影响作用,对发电竞争参数设计的若干备择方案进行对比分析,并为市场参数设计提供参考。Parameters of a competitive generation market are designed under uncertainties. This paper uses the cloud model to expand and describe the fuzziness of the long term growth rate of market demand. Based on the dynamic simulation of generation investment, the generation capacity development is simulated according to each drop of the demand growth cloud, and the simulation result is displayed and analyzed from views of reliability and economy. Case study shows that such method takes various market scenarios under uncertainties into consideration to contrast and analyze alternative parameter settings of market competition, and it can provide references for market parameter design.

关 键 词：动态仿真 云模型 能量价格上限 容量价格 

分 类 号：TM744[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]