辽宁省春播期第一场透雨时间变化及预测模型  

Preliminary Study on Temporal Variation and Forecast Model of the First Soaking Rain in Spring Sowing Period of Liaoning Province

作　　者：吴曼丽 陆忠艳 王瀛 

机构地区：[1]沈阳区域中心气象台,辽宁沈阳110016

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2009年第30期14769-14771,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：辽宁省气象局科研立项课题(200811)

摘　　要：利用1956～2007年4～5月辽宁省54个气象站的常规气象资料,分析了春播期第一场透雨的时空分布规律、环流形势特征。根据高低空环流配置特点,按照主要天气影响系统的不同,将影响辽宁春季第一场透雨的天气分为8种环流预测模型。利用2008、2009年春季数值预报产品,按照8种环流预测模型对辽宁春季第一场透雨做出预报,对预报质量进行评估发现模型预报结果完全正确,为进一步提高春播透雨预测率奠定基础。Using meteorological data from April to May, 1956 -2007, spatial and temporal distribution, circulation situation characters of the first soaking rain in spring sowing period were analyzed. According to the features of upper and lower air circulation configuration and differences of main weather influence system, the influencing weather to first soaking rain had been divided into 8 circulation models. Taking spring numerical products in 2008 and 2009, we predicted soaking rain weather, the results of circulation model had been verified absolutely correct. It will provide a basis for further improvement of forecasting soaking rain in spring sowing period.

关 键 词：透雨 时空分布 影响系统 环流模型 检测评估 

分 类 号：S161.6[农业科学—农业气象学]