大连气温变化趋势分析及对农业的影响  

Dalian Temperature Variation Trend Analysis and Its Impact on Agriculture

作　　者：盖小波[1] 蔡冬梅[1] 黄丹萍[1] 王静[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省大连市气象局,辽宁大连116001

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2009年第30期14772-14774,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：[目的]研究大连气温变化趋势,为农业可持续发展提供气候依据。[方法]应用最小二乘法进行线性拟合及Escel程序,按阶段分析气温变化趋势及增温幅度。[结果]在近59a里,平均气温升高1.9℃,T≥10℃积温增加了400℃。1988年是增温的拐点,近20a年平均气温比前39年升高1.3℃。冬半年气温升高幅度大于夏半年,以1～4月增温最明显。[结论]气温升高,总热量增加,对农业利弊同在。随着气温增高,农业结构需要调整,农业气象指标需要重新研究与确认。[ Objective ] The aim was to study the variation trend of Dalian temperature in order to provide climate basis for agriculture sustainable development. [ Method] The least square method was adopted to do linear fitting and Escel procedure. Temperature variation trend and wanning range were analyzed according to stages. [ Result] In recent 59 a, average temperature increased by 1.9 ℃, ∑ T≥ 10 ℃ accumulated temperature increase of 400 ℃. Warming in 1988 was the inflection point. In recent 20 a, the average temperature increased 1.3 ℃ than previous 39 a. Temperature increase rate in winter half year was bigger than in summer half year, especially in Jan. to Apr. [ Conclusion] Total calories increased with temperature increasing. In order realize agriculture sustainable development, the structure need to be reintegration and agro-meteorological indicators need to be reconfirm and study.

关 键 词：气温 趋势 影响 可持续发展 大连 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]