北京市公交客运显性需求预测分析  

Based on the DES Method of The Beijing PTSD Forecast Analysis

作　　者：陈玫[1] 汪光焘[1] 刘小明[1] 荣建[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学北京市交通工程重点实验室,北京100124

出　　处：《北京工业大学学报》2009年第6期769-774,共6页Journal of Beijing University of Technology

基　　金：霍英东教育基金资助项目(104008)

摘　　要：根据近9 a来的数据,以双指数平滑法,估计了北京市公交客运需求数量近期和中期的变动趋势及需求.研究发现:1)未来5 a的显性公交客运需求总量平均为50亿人次,年均动态自适应客运需求增量为0.6～1.4亿人次;2)北京市公共交通客运需求量对经济增长、常住人口总量增长和旅游人数的变动等因素不敏感;3)单纯的公交客运价格变动不足以从根本上改变潜在公交消费者的消费倾向.需要进一步考察对于公交财政补贴的传递渠道,并结合路权的再配置方案,以便更好地改善公交消费环境,从而有效刺激公共交通客运需求量的提高.Based on the of historical data past nine years, a Double Exponential Smoothing （DES） method is used to estimate the recent public transport services demand （PTSD） in Beijing and medium-term change trends, its demand and its relevant characteristics. What we find as follow： 1. In the next five years, the total demand for dominant transit services average about 5 billion passengers, with an annual average of the interval of dynamic adaptive service demand increase would inhabit about 60 to 140 million people. 2. The PTSD showed stickiness obviously which had been highly insensitive to the factors of economic growth, the changed total resident population and tourism growth. 3. Simply transit price decline can hardly change the behavior of latent consumer. Therefore, we need a further study of transfer channels for financial subsidies. On the other hand, we should combine the re-allocation of rights of road in order to improve the consumption environment of public transport, thereby effectively stimulate the PTSD increas.

关 键 词：北京公交 需求量预测 特征分析 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]