基于半不变量法的随机潮流误差分析  

Error Analysis of the Probabilistic Load Flow Based on Cumulant Method

作　　者：胡泽春[1] 王锡凡[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院,上海市闵行区200240 [2]西安交通大学电气工程学院,陕西省西安市710049

出　　处：《电网技术》2009年第18期32-37,共6页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究专项经费项目(2004CB217905)~~

摘　　要：随机潮流可以给出在考虑各种不确定因素下系统状态的概率分布信息,但基于半不变量法计算随机潮流时为求得所需结果不得不采取近似和假设。深入分析了随机潮流计算各环节的假设条件及其可能引起的误差。为使随机潮流模型更符合实际,文中提出了如何处理节点功率相关性、故障列表和调度策略等问题;此外比较了2种求随机变量分布的方法,阐述了它们的特点及其误差;最后分析了系统规模对计算误差的影响。文中以IEEERTS24节点系统为算例,以蒙特卡罗法的结果为基准,在误差分析的每一部分均给出了相应的数值结果。Probabilistic load flow （PLF） can give probability distribution information of system state under the uncertain factors considered, however, in order to obtain required result, approximation and assumption have to be adopted while the PLF is calculated based on cumulant method. The assumed conditions for each part in the PLF calculation and the calculation error possibly caused by the assumed conditions are analyzed in detail. To make the PLF model more conforming to practice, in this paper such problems as how to deal with nodal power correlation, contingency list and dispatching strategy are researched; then two method of solving distribution of random variables are compared, and their features and error caused by them are expounded; finally, the influence of system scale on calculation error is analyzed. Taking IEEE RTS 24-bus system for calculation example and based on the results by Monte Carlo simulation, the corresponding numerical results in each part of error analysis are given.

关 键 词：随机潮流(PLF) 误差分析 半不变量法 线性相关 分布函数 

分 类 号：TM712[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]