花园口站近523年汛期径流量变化规律分析  

Analysis on Runoff Variation Laws in Flood Season of About 523 Years of Huayuankou Station

作　　者：康玲玲[1] 尤伟[2] 王昌高[1] 魏义长[3] 王云璋[1] 

机构地区：[1]黄河水利科学研究院水利部黄河泥沙重点实验室,河南郑州450003 [2]水利部水土保持监测中心,北京100053 [3]华北水利水电学院,河南郑州450011

出　　处：《人民黄河》2009年第10期74-75,77,共3页Yellow River

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAB06B01)

摘　　要：依据重建的花园口站523年汛期天然径流量序列,分析了其历史变化特点和未来趋势。结果表明:①近523年径流量变化具有较明显的阶段性,大致经历了9个枯水段和8个丰水段;②历史变化的显著周期有3年、5年、48年、157年、70年、33年和95年;③至2055年的汛期平均天然径流量可能为400亿m3左右,较多年均值偏多近10%,大体可分为平转丰、正常偏枯、偏丰、正常偏枯、丰水、正常偏枯和丰水等7个持续时间不同的阶段。The paper analyzes the characteristics of historical variation and future tendency of natural runoff in flood season based on the rebuilt serial for 523 years of Huayuankou Station.The outcomes show that a) the runoff variation in about 523 years has obvious nature of stage.It roughly goes through 9 stages of dry period and 8 stages of wet period;b) the historical variation has the following marked periods of 3-year,5-year,48-year,157-year,70-year,33-year and 95-year and;c) up to 2055,the average natural runoff in flood season might be about 40 billion m3,about 10% more than that of the long-term average.Generally,it can be divided into 7 different stages of duration of normal change to wet,somewhat low of normal,upward wet,somewhat low of normal,wet,somewhat low of normal and wet.

关 键 词：未来趋势 序列重建 变化规律 汛期径流量 花园口站 黄河 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学] TV882.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]