基于Logistic回归模型的目标截获概率等效方法  

Equivalent Method for Target Capture Probability Based on Logistic Regression Model

作　　者：陈璇[1] 王正明[1] 孙蒙[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学理学院数学与系统科学系,长沙410073

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2009年第19期5977-5980,共4页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(60604020);航天支撑技术基金项目(2006-HT-GFKD-02)

摘　　要：针对如何根据导弹少量陆上飞行试验及大量海上仿真试验的目标截获结果推算到海上实际飞行试验结果的问题,首先推导出目标截获概率的模型,得到截获概率是关于信杂比的函数的结论,接着引入仿真可信度的概念,对陆上飞行试验结果和仿真结果进行融合,提出了一种基于Logistic回归模型的目标截获概率等效方法。仿真结果表明,该方法实用可行。Aiming at the problem which is how to calculate the missile capturing target result for actual air test on the sea according to the capturing target results for simulated air tests on the sea and actual air tests on the land, the model of the target capture probability was concluded and the conclusion that the target capture probability is the function of Signalto-Clutter （SCR） was derived. Combing the actual air test results on the land and simulated test results by simulation credibility, an equivalent method for target capture probability based on Logistic regression model was proposed. The simulation results show that the method is effective and valuable.

关 键 词：飞行试验 目标截获概率 仿真可信度 LOGISTIC回归模型 等效 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]