基于灰色理论的汽车缺陷风险评估模型  

Risk assessment model of automobile defects based on the gray theory

作　　者：王琰[1] 黄国忠[1] 宋存义[1] 王赟松[2] 王靖[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院,北京100083 [2]国家质量监督检验检疫总局缺陷产品管理中心,北京100088

出　　处：《北京科技大学学报》2009年第9期1178-1182,共5页Journal of University of Science and Technology Beijing

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划资助项目(No.2006DAK04A10)

摘　　要：应用事件树方法确定了汽车缺陷风险传递路径,将缺陷风险转化为失效风险进行等效研究.根据汽车缺陷风险特点,建立了风险评估SPN模型,并以三维矩阵图描述汽车缺陷风险;针对汽车的不合理风险及汽车缺陷数据离散和波动的状态,提出了基于灰色理论的风险预测方法;以失效预测数据作为风险评估的风险概率预测基础,建立汽车缺陷的失效预测模型,采用残差辨识法检验模型精度.研究结果表明:在掌握实际的汽车售后零部件故障数据情况下,模型对汽车缺陷风险概率预测具有较好的适用性.In order to carry out equivalent study between defect risks and failure defects,the event tree analysis（ETA） method was introduced to determine the risk flow route of automobile defects.An SPN model for risk assessment was set up based on characteristics of automobile defect risks,and a 3D matrix graph was introduced to describe overall risks.According to the scattered and fluctuant characteristics of automobile defect data,a risk forecast method based on the gray theory was proposed,and a failure forecasting model of automobile defects was built with failure data as the basis of forecasting risk possibility. The precision of the failure forecasting model was proved by residual discrimination. It is shown that on gathering actual failure data from after-sales service, the gray model has a favorable applicability for forecasting risk possibility.

关 键 词：汽车 缺陷 风险评估 模型 适用性 

分 类 号：U461.91[机械工程—车辆工程]