2008年石油公司上游成本变化与影响因素分析  

Analysis of factors influencing upstream costs for oil companies in 2008

作　　者：郑德鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石化胜利油田分公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2009年第9期39-46,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：在定义石油公司上游成本指标体系的基础上,根据近8年来BP、壳牌、雪佛龙、雷普索尔、中国石油和中国石化6家石油公司的年报数据,首先对比分析了各石油公司的油气发现成本、勘探开发成本、操作成本、勘探费用成本和供应成本及其变动趋势。其次,通过对油价、储量和矿区权益与石油公司油气成本关系的分析,解析了2008年石油公司油气阶段成本变化的原因。最后,总结提出了三点认识:第一,油价与石油公司的油气成本水平存在复杂的互动关系,两者永远在动态中不断寻求新的均衡;第二,探明储量的发现和获取成本的高低将直接反映在石油公司的油气总成本水平上,必须牢固树立"今天的储量就是明天的产量,今天的投资就是明天的成本"的观念;第三,石油公司成本水平的螺旋式上升已经成为一种常态,石油公司对油气成本水平的管控应从过去的注重"成本变动水平的管控"转变为相对于油价变动的"成本变动幅度的管控"。This study looks at costs for six major oil companies:BP, Shell,Chevron,Repsol,PetroChina and Sinopec.Firstly,a comparison is made of the companies' costs for oil & gas discovery,exploration and exploitation,operation,exploration fees as well as supply costs and the trends in changes to these costs.This is done on the basis of an established system of norms regarding upstream costs for oil companies,and by examining data reported by each company.Secondly,a tentative explanation is offered for the changes in costs for various gas stages for each of the oil companies in 2008.This has been done by analyzing the relationship between oil prices, reserves and mining rights to oil companies' costs of oil & gas production.Finally,the study summarizes three important points.Firstly,oil prices and the cost of oil & gas production for oil companies have complex mutual effects;a change in one will necessarily affect the other,leading to a new equilibrium.Secondly,the verification of reserves and the level of development costs directly influence the overall costs of oil & gas production.There is a need to strengthen the awareness that'today's reserves are tomorrow's production,today' s investment is tomorrow's cost'.Thirdly,the cost levels of many companies are spiraling upwards.Oil companies should change the emphasis of cost level management from reducing fluctuations in cost levels to reducing fluctuations in cost levels relative to the price of oil.

关 键 词：石油公司 油气成本 发现成本 勘探开发成本 操作成本 供应成本 油气储量 国际油价 矿区权益 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] TQ323.8[化学工程—合成树脂塑料工业]