云南烤烟大田生长中后期气候变化及其影响  

Climate Change during Dominating Season for Flue-cured Tobacco Growth and Its Influence in Yunnan

作　　者：黄中艳[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]云南省农业气象与卫星遥感应用中心 [2]云南大学资源环境与地球科学学院,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《作物杂志》2009年第5期14-18,共5页Crops

基　　金：云南省气象局气候变化专项(QH200902)

摘　　要：基于48年多站点平均气候数据,使用EOF分析、典型相关和变化特征值进行研究。1961～2008年烤烟大田生长中后期气候变化主要表现在光、温、水匹配和气温两方面;光热水总量年际变化幅度稳定,平均值年代际差别明显;光、温、水匹配和要素值倾向率有年代际差别,1990年以来升温加剧、雨量和日照线性倾向率加大;平均气温、日照和雨量的48年线性倾向率分别为0.09℃/10年、-10.9h/10年和-8.6mm/10年;夏季、年气候总量都不能代表烤烟各生育阶段气候。夏季光、温、水匹配的变化对云烟品质风格特点影响小,气候变暖有利于改善烟叶质量,日照减少和小概率夏季低温是不利因素;大田生长中后期气候年际波动对烤烟产量、质量影响显著。Based on the climatic data of 48 years correlation as well as feature values for climate from weather stations, orthogonal expansion analysis and canonical change were used to investigate characteristics of climate change during dominating season for tobacco growth and their influence on tobacco planting in Yunnan. The results indicated that when it comes to investigative season from 1961 to 2008, the climate change was mainly reflected in the matching of sunshine duration, average air temperature and rainfall, and in temperature. The variation amplitudes for gross amounts of three essential climatic elements were jarless among decades but their interannual differences of mean values were obvious. The staged differences of inclination rates for main climatic elements and of the matching for three essential climatic elements were found too. Air temperature variation had boosted climate warming and the inclination rates of rainfall and sunshine duration had obviously enlarged since 1990. The inclination rates of 48-year for average temperature, sunshine duration and rainfall were 0. 09℃/10a, - 10. 9h/10a and -8.6mm/10a,respectively. Meanwhile, the climate changes between June and July-August were inconsistent. And the climate change of dominating season for tobacco growth was compatible with one of maturation period for tobacco, but had nothing to do with annual gross amounts for three essential climatic elements. The change tendency of climates during dominating season for tobacco growth had little impact on the quality style and features of tobacco-leaf in Yunnan. But the climate warming in summer was in favor of tobacco planting and amelioration of tobacco quality. As for the impacts of climate change, the diminution of sunshine duration and the chilling injury with small probability in summer were adverse factors in tobacco planting while the quality and output of tobacco-leaf were dramatically influenced by interannual climatic fluctuation. The paper may be instructive in responding climate change for tobacc

关 键 词：云南 气候变化 烤烟种植 大田生长中后期 EOF分析 

分 类 号：S572[农业科学—烟草工业]