模糊识别法在电信产品生命周期判别中的应用  

Development of a Fuzzy Pattern Recognition Based Model for Telecom Product Lifecycle Judgment

作　　者：石文华[1] 林先清[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京邮电大学经济管理学院,北京100876

出　　处：《北京邮电大学学报（社会科学版）》2009年第4期56-60,共5页Journal of Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications(Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：基于模糊识别的基本原理和方法,以通信行业中的电信产品为研究对象,判定电信产品的生命周期,选取了电信产品的业务用户数、业务渗透率和每个用户平均收入(ARPU)值作为指标,构造了电信产品生命周期的模糊识别模型。同时,选取了中国移动某省公司的彩铃业务进行了实例分析。验证结果表明,模糊识别方法具有很好的映射能力,是判别电信产品生命周期阶段的一种有效方法。研究结论对电信运营商的营销战略具有重要的借鉴意义。The judge of Product Life Cycle is a key to product strategy. Telecommunication product life cycle is usually adopted Discrimination experience or Gompertz curve Discrimination, but Discrimination experience is not accurate, Gompertz curve Discrimination is not suitable with telecommunication product. Based the basic principles and methods of Development of a fuzzy pattern recognition, and the telecommunications industry for the study, to determine the life cycle of telecommunications products, selecting products business subscribers, infiltration rate and ARPU as the indicator, which constitutes a telecommunications product life cycle Fuzzy recognition model. At the same time, selecting a telecommunication products example, the results show that the Fuzzy methodology to identify good mapping capabilities is to determine telecommunications product life cycle stages of an effective way. Conclusions of the study have great an influence on marketing strategy of Telecom operators.

关 键 词：模糊识别法 产品生命周期 电信产品 

分 类 号：F626[经济管理—产业经济]