气候变暖背景下中国东部季风区秋季气温的变化特征  

Climate Warming of the Mean Autumn Air Temperature of the East Monsoon Area in China

作　　者：韩通[1,2,3,4] 陈少勇[1,2,3,4] 高蓉[4] 张燕霞[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,兰州730020 [2]甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,兰州730020 [3]中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,兰州730020 [4]白银市气象局,白银730900

出　　处：《资源科学》2009年第10期1740-1748,共9页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(编号:40775057)

摘　　要：利用中国东部季风区375个测站,近46a年平均地面气温资料,采用线性趋势分析、EOF、REOF、Mann-Kendall、子波分析等方法,分析了季风区秋季气温的变暖特征。结果表明:①中国东部季风区秋季气温增温明显,1961年～2006年46年期间增温率为0.22℃/10a,其中11月份增温最大;从1974年开始气温呈增加趋势,1987年有一次显著突变;秋季气候变暖中,平均气温、最高气温、最低气温的增温率存在区域差异,大部分地方以最低气温的升高为主,而中西部最高气温的增温比较突出;②秋季气温的稳定性,黄河南部高于北部;③季风区大多数区域秋季气温变化有明显上升趋势,增温率从南向北增大,气温变化趋势不显著的区域主要在季风区的南部;④根据REOF分析,将该区秋季气温异常细分为北、中、南、东南和中南5个分区;全区性的前10个偏暖年,70%出现在1990年以后;气温异常变化存在准7年和11年的周期;⑤气温的转折北部和南部比中部早5～10年,南部从本世纪初期开始转为降温,值得关注;气温的突变北部和南部比中部早3～5年。Using observations of mean surface air temperatures over the years 1961-2006 from 375 weather stations over the east monsoon area in China and methods of linear regression analysis, multinomial fitting, EOF, REOF, Mann-Kendall, Glide T-examination, Wavelet analysis and power spectrum analysis, we analyzed variation trends in the mean autumn air temperature of the monsoon area in China in the context of climate warming. It is concluded that： 1） The air temperature of the east monsoon area generally increased at a rate of 0.22℃/10a over the past 46 years, particularly showing a marked increasing trend since 1974 and a sudden charge in increasing rate since 1987. Afterwards, the climate basically showed a warmer trend. There existed large differences in the increasing rates of mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature for different regions. In general, the increase in daily minimum temperature dominated the majority of the study areas while the increase in daily maximum temperature dominated the mid-west areas; 2）The standard deviation and relative variability in mean air temperature for the regions over the south of the Yellow River were lower compared with that for the north; 3） An obvious increasing trend in mean autumn temperature was observed over the east monsoon areas, showing an increase in increasing rate from the south to the north. The south of the monsoon area did not present a prominent variation in air temperature, even showing a marked decreasing trend over the east of Sichuan and Yunnan provinces; 4）Based on the EOF method, we classified the anomalous areas for variations in mean autumn temperature over the east monsoon area into three general patterns： the consistent pattern for all regions, the quasi pattern for the difference between the north and the south, and the quasi coastline pattern. Furthermore, the anomalous regions were classified into 5 subareas in detail, namely the north monsoon area, the south monsoon area, the south-east monsoon area, the middle -so

关 键 词：中国季风区 秋季气温 气候变暖 特征分析 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P618.130.2