70年来陕西省纸坊沟流域农业生态经济系统耦合态势  

Coupling analysis of the agricultural ecological economic system over 70 years in the Zhifanggou watershed,Shaanxi Province

作　　者：王继军 姜志德[2] 连坡[3] 郭满才[3] 姜峻[1] 苏鑫[1] 李慧[1] 牛艳丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所,中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,陕西杨陵西农路26号712100 [2]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,陕西杨陵渭惠路4号712100 [3]西北农林科技大学理学院,陕西杨陵西农路30号712100

出　　处：《生态学报》2009年第9期5130-5137,共8页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40771082);国家"十一五"科技支撑计划课题(2006BAD09B10);中国科学院西部行动计划(二期)项目(KZCX2-XB2-05-01-03)

摘　　要："农业生态经济系统耦合"的研究与实践对于实现农业产业与资源相一致,建立持续、高效的农业生态经济系统具有重要的意义。耦合度可以阐明农业经济系统与农业生态系统互动关系,判定农业生态经济系统耦合态势。在分析陕西省纸坊沟流域农业生态经济系统耦合关系的基础上,参照系统科学等理论及相关研究结果建立了农业经济系统与农业生态系统耦合度模型,并计算和分析了该流域70a来的耦合度。结果表明,农业生态经济系统的耦合过程可以划分为4个阶段:Ⅰ.经济系统依赖生态资源进行原始化农业生产阶段;Ⅱ.农业生产掠夺式利用生态资源,生态系统供给能力不断减少阶段;Ⅲ.农业经济系统与生态系统协调化发展阶段;Ⅳ.降低农业发展速度,促使生态系统重建阶段。纸坊沟流域从1938～2008年先后经历了第Ⅰ阶段、第Ⅱ阶段和第Ⅲ阶段。目前处于第Ⅲ阶段,但在"系统发展"过程中已潜伏了越来越大的危机,到2018年系统耦合突破"协调"界限,"相悖态势"将明显表现出来。为此,纸坊沟流域必须调整产业布局,发展草畜产业,进行产业升级,优化产业结构,实现农业生态经济系统协调、持续发展。Research about coupling in agricultural ecological economic systems is important for the establishment of an efficient and sustainable agricultural production system. Knowledge about the degree of coupling can help clarify interaction between the agricultural and economic systems and be used to judge the state of the agricultural ecological economic system. In this paper, the author established a coupling factor model for the agricultural and economic system in the Zhifanggou watershed, Shaanxi Province. Analysis was conducted using data collected over 70 years. The results indicate that the coupling process in the agricultural ecological economic system can be divided four stages： I. A stage of primitive agricultural production in which which the economic system depends on the ecological resources; II. A stage in which agricultural production exploits ecological resources and the ability of the system to supply resources decreases unceasingly ; III. A stage of coordinated development of the agricultural and economic systems; and IV. A stage in which the speed of agricultural development is reduced and reconstruction of the agricultural ecosystem is promoted. The agricultural ecological economic system passed through stages Ⅰ, Ⅱ, and Ⅲbetween 1938 and 2008. Currently the system in the Zhifanggou watershed is at stage Ⅲ, however the process of system development has concealed the continued growth of a potential crisis. Analysis shows that system coupling will break through the coordinate boundary in 2018. This will result in the clear manifestation of conflict within the system. For this reason, it is important to re-adjust the distribution of industry in the region, promote the development of pastoral animal production, and optimize the industrial structure in order to realize harmonious and healthy development within the agricultural ecological economic system.

关 键 词：农业经济系统 农业生态系统 耦合度 态势 纸坊沟流域 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]