山区双车道公路事故预测模型研究及在安全性评价中的应用  

Study on Prediction Model of Traffic Accident on Two-lane Highways in Mountainous Area and Its Application in Safety Assessment

作　　者：秦勤[1] 唐琤琤[2] 彭道月[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省公路管理局,安徽合肥230022 [2]交通部公路科学研究院,北京100088

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2009年第10期139-143,共5页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：交通部西部交通建设科技资助项目(200431822333-01)

摘　　要：根据采集的双车道公路的事故、线形、交通等数据,考虑公路横向干扰、路侧情况等,将双车道公路划分为普通路段、村庄路段和交叉口,分别建立了事故总数、一般以上事故次数以及碰撞、追尾和路侧等不同形态的事故次数与道路和交通要素关系的双车道公路事故预测基础模型。然后,应用统计分析方法进行了路基宽度等事故修正因子(AMF)的研究;使用基础模型经过AMF修正、经验贝叶斯过程(EB过程)、标定等进行双车道公路机体事故预测。最后,介绍了双车道公路事故预测模型在安全性评价中的应用。Based on the collected data of the accidents, the alignment and traffic volume, etc. on the two-lane highways, according to the disturbance from roadside and roadside condition along the highway, the highway was divided into common sections, village sections and intersections. For these sections, the basic prediction models of the number of total accidents, accidents above the slight level, collision accidents, rear-end accidents and roadside accidents which reflect the relationship of the accident frequency with road and traffic features were built. Then, some accident modification factors （AMFs） of road features such as width of roadbed were also discussed by statistical analysis. Based on the basic models, the accident prediction for two-lane highways was conducted using AMFs, EB procedure and calibriation. Lastly, its application in safety assessment was introduced.

关 键 词：交通工程 安全性评价定量方法 事故预测模型 事故修正因子 EB过程 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]