灰色预测模型在青岛市淡水养殖产量预测中的应用  

Prediction of freshwater aquaculture production of Qingdao city by using a grey prediction model

作　　者：刘群[1] 徐宾铎[1] 任一平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学水产学院,山东青岛266003

出　　处：《南方水产》2009年第5期38-43,共6页South China Fisheries Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(30271025)

摘　　要：渔业系统是个多因素、多层次和多目标的大系统,由诸多错综复杂的关系所组成。灰色预测是建立从过去引伸到将来的灰色预测模型(grey prediction model),从而确定所研究系统未来发展变化的趋势,为决策者提供科学依据。文章应用灰色预测模型对青岛市淡水养殖产量进行了预测。应用5、10和20年的养殖产量数据估算2010年的产量分别为9.34×104、11.71×104和24.1×104t。文章讨论了这些差异不是由于模型的失败,而是由于数据的不同造成的,建议应用5年的数据的预测结果。Fishery system is a large system which is multi-factor, multi-layer and multi-objective, embracing many complicated relationships. Grey prediction is performed on the grey prediction model which forecasts the future from the past, with the aim to determine the future trend of the system in question, and to provide the decision makers with scientific evidence. This paper forecasted the freshwater aquaculture production of Qingdao city by using a grey prediction model. Based on 5, 10 and 20 years＇ aquaculture production data, the predicted 2010 production were 93 400, 117 100, and 241 000 tons, respectively. The authors discussed that the different results were not due to the model failure but to the different data, and the forecasted result from the 5-year data was recommended.

关 键 词：淡水养殖产量 灰色模型 预测 

分 类 号：S932[农业科学—渔业资源]