广东省城镇居民收入-消费关系协整分析  

Cointegration Analysis of Income and Consumption of Urban Resident in Guangdong Province

作　　者：朱彦孜[1] 吴江[1] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广东广州510632

出　　处：《未来与发展》2009年第10期76-79,共4页Future and Development

摘　　要：随着经济危机的深入,广东省出口导向型发展模式受到极大的冲击,急需通过拉动本省居民消费需求来维持经济的平稳发展。本文运用协整和误差修正模型,对广东省城镇居民收入-消费关系进行实证研究,结果表明:城镇居民收入与消费之间存在长期均衡关系。因此,增加居民收入,完善信贷市场,健全社会保障体系是促进城镇居民消费的有效途径。The export-oriented development model of Guangdong Province is under extremely impact by the financial crisis. In order to maintain the sustainable development of Guangdong Province, the need to enlarge domestic consumption is urgent. This paper analyzes the relationship between the income and consumption of urban resident in Guangdong Province applying the error correction model （ECM）.The conclusion indicate that there is a long-term and balanced relation between income and consumption, so increasing people＇s income ,improving the credit market and building up a sound society security system will be the effective methods to stimulate the consumption of urban resident in Guangdong Province.

关 键 词：消费函数 协整 误差修正模型 过度敏感性 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济]