中国金融安全指数的估算与实证分析:1998-2007  

An Empirical Analysis of Financial Safety Index in China: 1998-2007

作　　者：蒋海[1] 苏立维[1] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学金融研究所/金融系,广东广州510632

出　　处：《当代财经》2009年第10期47-53,共7页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金项目(08JA790056);广东省社科基金项目(07E04);教育部留学回国人员启动基金项目"银行体系风险控制中的激励问题实证研究";暨南大学金融研究所项目"金融市场开放条件下的我国金融监管体系研究"

摘　　要：随着中国金融市场的不断扩大开放,国家金融安全问题日益突出。当前的国际金融危机再一次警示我们,在金融业发展、开放与创新中,必须高度重视金融安全问题。结合中国实际,选择微观、宏观和国际市场三大类17个金融经济指标,采用主观赋值与主成分分析法确定指标权重,对中国1998-2007年金融安全指数进行估算,并在此基础上,选择影响金融安全的主要风险变量对中国金融安全进行的实证分析发现:银行的违约风险(不良贷款)和国际游资风险构成了中国金融安全的主要威胁;资本市场风险与中国金融安全状况同方向变动;而利率风险、汇率风险、通胀风险对中国金融安全的影响并不显著。Along with the ever-extending opening of the financial market in China, the problem of national financial safety is becoming increasingly acute. The current global financial crisis gave us another warning that during the course of financial development, opening and innovation, close attention must be paid to the problem of financial safety. In view of the real situation of China, this paper chooses 17 indicators from three categories of micro, macro and international markets to estimate the financial safety index in China during 1998-2007 with the subjective assignment and the major elements analytical method to determine the index weight. On this basis, some major risk variables affecting financial safety are chosen to carry out an empirical analysis on the financial safety in China. The results show that banking default risk （bad loan） and hot money risk are the main threats to Chinese financial safety; the capital market risk is moving along the same direction with China＇ s financial safety condition; while the influences of interest rate risk, exchange rate risk and inflation risk on China＇ s financial safety are not so obvious.

关 键 词：金融安全指数 违约风险 国际游资风险 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]