地震水化前兆的灰色识别  

GREY SYSTEM RECOGNITION OF SEISMOHYDROGEOCHEMICAL PRECURSOR

作　　者：冯玉勇[1,2] 王焰新[1,2] 吴新林 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质研究所工程地质力学开放研究实验室 [2]中国地质大学

出　　处：《工程地质学报》1998年第4期344-350,共7页Journal of Engineering Geology

摘　　要：本文研究了水化地震前兆的灰色系统识别方法，并以北京栏杆市热水井Ｈ２浓度动态为例建立了ＧＭ（１，１）滑动识别模型。文中提出了动态前兆识别参数Ｍ（ｔ）的概念，认为动态前兆识别参数Ｍ（ｔ）比静态识别指标更有效。用这种识别法进行后验性识别，提前于内蒙丰镇１９８１年８月１３日５．８级地震前１５天识别出发震前兆。以唐山地震前后津２热水井ＣＯ２前兆异常识别的失败为反例，分析了失败的原因，认为对地震平静期的观测研究是进行水化前兆灰色识别的前提。A grey system model, the dynamic model GM(1,1) g model, for recognition of seismogeochemical precursor is studied. Dissolved hydrogen gas dynamic change in Langanshi hot well, Beijing is used in the study here. The seismic precursor was found 15 days before the Fengzhen earthquake, Nei Monggol on August 13, 1981, M s=5.8 ). The concept of recognition index M(t) for the dynamic precursor is firstly suggested in this paper. The index is more effective than the static index in recongniyion of seismic precursor.

关 键 词：灰色系统 水化前兆 地震前兆 灰色识别 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]