家庭子代死亡风险对经济增长的影响  

Impact of Offspring Mortality on Economic Development

作　　者：刘永平[1] 黄丽珍[1] 

机构地区：[1]福州大学管理学院,福建福州350108

出　　处：《福州大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2009年第5期17-23,共7页Journal of Fuzhou University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

摘　　要：在家庭养老的环境里,独生子女政策下的子代意外死亡发生时间对于家庭的子女教育投资、储蓄以及由此产生的家庭养老保障能力具有重要的影响。当家庭尚有生育能力的情况下,子代在未接受人力资本积累期间的死亡率变化与教育投资率无关,也与家庭的储蓄率无关,但该阶段的死亡率下降,有利于消费的永久性增长。但对于子代在家庭支付人力资本积累后的死亡率变化对人力资本投资具有正反两面的作用,它的变化对于经济增长也同样具有正反两种效应,其净效应还受制于老年的存活概率,子代的生育率数量等其他因素。因此,在当前老龄化程度较低的情况下,当前的高储蓄现象并非来自于子代死亡率的下降以及子代数量的外生下降,而是来自于老年寿命预期的延长,子代的死亡风险并不必然导致中国长期养老能力的弱化。Under the current One-child Policy,the occurring time of offspring mortality exerts a very great influence on such issues as education investment,savings decisions and within-household old-age support capability.When the couple in the family are fertile,the variance of offspring mortality rate before the beginning of human capital accumulation is not related in any way to education investment rate,nor to family savings rate.If the mortality at this stage decreases,there will a permanent increase in the consumption rate.But if mortality occurs after the education cost has been taken,it has both positive and negative impact on human capital investment and economic growth,its net effect depends on the mortality probability of the old age,the survival numbers of offspring and other parameters.Therefore,under the circumstances of low aging degree,offspring mortality does not necessarily weaken the old-age support capability of the society.The current phenomenon of high savings is the result of the lengthened life expectancy of the old,not of any decrease in fertility and of offspring mortality.

关 键 词：家庭养老 死亡率 储蓄 教育 经济增长 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学] F063.4