基于数字流域模型的唐家山堰塞湖入流过程应急预报  

Forecast of inflows and water levels of Tangjiashan dammed lake based on digital watershed model

作　　者：高洁[1] 王光谦[1] 傅旭东[1] 张建新[1,2] 李铁键[1] 王皓[1] 陈祖华[2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京100084 [2]水利部水文局,北京100053

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第5期568-572,共5页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划(2007BAC06B06)

摘　　要：唐家山堰塞湖是5.12汶川大地震形成的高危型堰塞湖,对下游城市构成了重大威胁.唐家山堰塞湖应急除险决策需要解决在库区水位持续迅速上升、震后安全条件复杂多变的条件下,对湖区入流和水位变化过程及时准确预报的问题.采用数字流域模型对唐家山堰塞湖进行来流预报.通过分析降雨条件和决策需求,结合实时天气预报的结果,采用降雨情景分析和实时预报相结合的方法,实现了入库流量和水位变化的短期预测.预测的日水位误差为0.06 m,占日水位变幅的4.7%,为应急除险决策提供了参考数据.数字流域模型在唐家山堰塞湖的应用,提供了一个应急情形下实现合理来流预报的案例.Tangjiashan dammed lake is a dangerous dammed lake induced by ＂5·12＂ Wenchuan Earthquake in Sichuan Province and leads to great threat to the downstream cities. With regard to the disaster mitigation decision-making for Tangjiashan dammed lake, an instant and accurate prediction of lake inflows and water levels was urgently required under the increasing reservoir water level and complex post-earthquake safety conditions. The digital watershed model （DWM） was employed to forecast the inflows into Tangjiashan dammed lake. Based on the analysis of precipitation conditions and decision-making requirements and combined with the results of the real-time weather forecast, a short-term prediction of inflows and water levels was realized by use of the combination method of precipitation analysis and real-time forecast. The maximum error of the hourly prediction of the water level is 0.06 m, accounting for 4.7 % of variation of the daily water level, and it provides reference data for the disaster mitigation decision-making. The application of DWM in Tangjiashan dammed lake is a case of realizing the rational inflow prediction under emergent situations.

关 键 词：唐家山 堰塞湖 5.12汶川大地震 数字流域模型 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]