美俄卫星碰撞事件验证及其对我国卫星的影响分析  

Verification of Collision Between American and Russian Satellite and Analysis of Impact on China’s Satellite

作　　者：冯昊[1] 向开恒[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京空间飞行器总体设计部,北京100094

出　　处：《航天器工程》2009年第5期20-27,共8页Spacecraft Engineering

摘　　要：北京时间2009年2月11日0时55分,美国铱星-33和俄罗斯宇宙-2251两颗卫星在太空相撞,在所在的高度产生了大量新增空间碎片,使得空间碎片环境更加严峻,低轨航天器运行遭受空间碎片撞击的风险大幅增加。文章通过碰撞前后轨道数据分析,确认并验证了此次碰撞事件;利用事前轨道数据进行碰撞预警分析,得出碰撞的相关的参数;通过分析此次事件产生的新增碎片的轨道数据,进一步验证确认碰撞事件;从空间碎片密度和通量角度分析其对当前空间碎片环境产生的影响;通过新增碎片寿命计算分析其对空间碎片环境的长期的影响;从碰撞概率出发分析对航天器运行安全的威胁。分析结果表明:我国低轨卫星在一定程度上增大了空间碎片碰撞风险,需要进行在轨空间碎片碰撞预警,以确保我国卫星的安全运行。The first-ever collision between two satellites--one American, the other Russian--has created speeding clouds of debris that threaten other LEO spacecraft in nearby orbits. In this paper, the collision is affirmed and validated by analysis of orbit data both before and after collision; dependent parameters of this collision is analyzed by beforehand forecast with orbit data; the collision is further affirmed and validated by analysis of new space debris created by the collision; the impact on current space debris environment is analyzed by computing space debris density and flux; the long-term impact on current space debris environment is also analyzed by computing the lifetime of new space debris; the threaten to spacecraft is also analyzed by computing collision probability. Analysis result indicates that China＇s LEO satellite is in the threaten of space debris collision, which needs in-orbit space debris collision forecast to avoid such threaten.

关 键 词：美俄卫星碰撞事件 空间碎片 碰撞概率 空间环境 

分 类 号：V528[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]