汉江流域未来降水径流预测分析研究  

Prediction of Rainfall and Runoff Changes in the Hanjiang Basin

作　　者：郭靖[1] 郭生练[1] 张俊 陈华[1] 陈桂亚[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]长江水利委员会水文局,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《水文》2009年第5期18-22,共5页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50679063;50809049);教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(200804861062)

摘　　要：本文应用统计降尺度法将全球气候模式和VIC分布式水文模型进行耦合,研究未来A2气候情景下汉江流域降水径流变化情况。首先应用基于光滑支持向量机的统计降尺度法在全球气候模式CGCM2和HadCM3的A2气候情景下,分别预测未来汉江流域日降水、气温过程,然后将预测降水过程作为VIC模型的输入,模拟预测未来汉江流域径流过程。研究结果表明,在CGCM2气候模式下,2020s(2011～2040年)时期汉江流域径流小于基准年,2050s(2041～2070年)时期与基准年基本相当,2080s(2071～2100年)时期大于基准年;在HadCM3气候模式下,2020s时期汉江流域径流小于基准年,2050s和2080s时期均比基准年增加;降水、气温预测结果与径流基本一致。Under the A2 climatic scenario, the changes of rainfall and runoff in the Hanjiang Basin were predicted by couphng the general circulation model （GCM） and the distributed VIC model. The future precipitation and temperature were downscaled from CGCM2 and HadCM3 outputs based on Smooth Support Vector Machine （SSVM）, then input to the VIC model to predict the runoff of the Hanjiang Basin. The results show that the trends of runoff projected from CGCM2 will decrease in 2020s （2011-2040）, increase in 2080s （2071-2100）, and no significantly change in 2050s （2041-2070）. For HadCM3 output, the runoff will decrease in 2020s, increase in 2050s and 2080s. It also can be seen that the predicted trends of rainfall, temperature and runoff are similar.

关 键 词：气候变化 统计降尺度法 VIC模型 GCM 降水 径流 汉江流域 

分 类 号：P338.9[天文地球—水文科学]