新一轮多哈贸易自由化对中国农业的影响  

The Impact of New Round Duoha Trade Liberalization on Chinese Agriculture

作　　者：刘宇[1] 黄季焜[2] 杨军[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家信息中心经济预测部,北京100045 [2]中国科学院农业政策研究中心,北京100101

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2009年第9期16-23,共8页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(编号:70333001);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(编号:KSCX2-YW-N-039)资助

摘　　要：多哈贸易自由化对中国农业的影响一直存在很大争论。与以往的研究不同,本文应用一般均衡模型GTAP与局部均衡模型CAPSIM对接的方法测算新一轮多哈贸易自由化对中国农业的影响。研究显示,贸易自由化总体上对中国经济有正面的影响,只不过影响幅度很小,但农业部门会在多哈自由化中享受相对较大的贸易优势;从分产品的贸易和生产来看,粮食作物、果蔬等产品有正的影响,而对畜产品和食糖会有负的影响;虽然贸易自由化对中国农民收入来说只有很小的正面影响,但这种影响在不同收入组之间差别很大,其中高收入组农民要比低收入组农民受益更多,贸易自由化在一定程度上会使农民的贫富差距拉大。There is debate about the impact of trade liberalization on the Chinese agriculture for a long time.Our study forecasts that First,China's economy will benefit from a potential Doha Round though overall impacts are minor.And in percentage terms,the gains in agriculture would be greater than the gains in the rest of the economy.Second,trade liberalization under DDR is likely to have positive impacts on many agricultural products such as rice,wheat,vegetable,fruits,pork and poultry.Differently,there are negative impacts on the livestock,sugar etc.Third,trade liberalization is going to have significant impacts on income distributions in favor of farmers with higher income in China.Finally,the results of this study also suggest several policy implications.

关 键 词：多哈回合 贸易自由化 农业 影响 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易] F320[经济管理—产业经济]