山东省耕地非农化数量最优配置研究——基于17个地级市面板数据的分析  

Study on Optimal Allocation of Cultivated Land Conversion——Based on Panel Data Analysis of 17 Cities in Shandong

作　　者：张基凯[1] 吴群[1] 黄秀欣[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《山东农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2009年第3期47-53,共7页Journal of Shandong Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)

摘　　要：耕地非农化是社会发展的必然现象,因而如何处理好经济发展和耕地非农化的关系是直接影响到社会可持续发展的关键问题。本文利用山东省各地级市1995-2006年的面板数据研究了山东省耕地非农化对经济增长贡献的区域差异,并从资源配置效率角度提出了各地级市耕地非农化的最优配置数量。研究结果表明:(1)对山东省17个地级市来说,耕地非农化对经济增长的贡献率基本都在3%以上,有的甚至达到13%,在经济增长过程中,土地对经济增长的贡献是无法低估的;(2)山东省耕地非农化贡献率呈现出明显的区域差异性,从总体分布趋势上看,贡献率由鲁东地区向鲁西逐渐递减;(3)根据各地耕地非农化的最佳配置值与现实配置量之间的差异进行耕地非农化适度性分析,发现鲁中地区的适度性最高,而鲁东地区和鲁西地区则分别出现了耕地非农化严重过度和严重滞后现象。Cultivated land conversion is inevitable for social development,so how to deal with the relationship between economic development and cultivated land conversion is the key issue for the society sustainable development.This paper uses panel data of each city from 1995 to 2006 in Shandong province to study regional differences of contribution to the economic growth of cultivated land conversion and the optimal quantity of cultivated land conversion.The results show that:(1)the contribution rate of cultivated land conversion for economic growth is merely all above 3 percent for each city in Shandong province,and some even reach 13 percent,therefore,the contribution of land to economic growth can not be underestimated in the economic growth process.(2)the contribution rate of cultivated land conversion for economic growth shows clear regional differences in Shandong province,from the view of the overall distribution trend,the contribution rate from East of Shandong Province to the West of Shandong province is gradually descending.(3)according to the differences between the best allocation values and the real allocation,we find that center of Shandong province region is the most moderate,however,the West of Shandong province region is serious excess and the East of Shandong province is severe hysteretic.

关 键 词：耕地非农化 配置效率 影响因素 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济]