基于解释结构模型的城市电力负荷预测  

Urban Power Load Forecasting Based on an Interpretative Structural Model

作　　者：何永秀[1] 陶卫君[1] 杨卫红[1] 戴爱英[1] 蔡琦[2] Furong LI 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学工商管理学院,北京市102206 [2]华北电网有限公司,北京市100053 [3]University of Bath, Bath BA2 7AY, UK

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2009年第20期37-42,共6页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70671042,70771039);教育部人文社科基金资助项目(07JA790092)~~

摘　　要：影响城市电力负荷的不确定风险因素很多,各种风险因素之间相互影响,形成一个复杂的系统。研究风险系统的结构和相互关系,以及这些风险因素对城市电力负荷的影响,对于城市电网规划非常有意义。文中以影响城市电力负荷的风险因素为研究对象,运用解释结构模型(ISM)对影响城市电力负荷的风险因素进行了分析,并构建了该风险系统的阶层结构图及风险传递链。在此基础上,建立了基于ISM风险分析的城市电力负荷预测模型。通过北京市2001年—2008年全社会用电量算例检验,所提出的方法可以有效提高城市电力负荷预测水平,为城市电力负荷预测风险管理提供决策基础。There are many uncertain risk factors that affect the urban power load and interact with one another, forming a complex risk system. It is of great significance for urban grid planning to study the structure of the risk system and the relationship between these risk factors, and clarify their influence on the urban power load. By taking the urban power load risk system as the research object, the urban power load risk factors are analyzed and the layered structure diagram and transport chain of risk factors are constructed with the interpretative structure modeling （ISM）. An urban power load forecasting model based on ISM risk analysis is proposed. The results of the case study of Beijing during the period 2001~2008 show that the method can effectively improve urban power load forecasting and provide a decision making basis for urban load forecasting risk management.

关 键 词：城市电力负荷预测 解释结构模型 风险 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]