基于模糊逻辑与离散选择模型的混合疏散人口估计模型  

Hybrid evacuation population estimation model based on fuzzy logic and discrete choice model

作　　者：安实[1] 崔建勋[2] 王健[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150090 [2]哈尔滨工业大学管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《交通运输工程学报》2009年第5期78-82,105,共6页Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70973032);国家软科学研究计划项目(2009GXS5D130)

摘　　要：为了合理预测潜在危险区域人员是否参与疏散的决策行为,以模糊逻辑与离散选择模型为理论基础,构建了能够反映影响人员疏散决策行为的因素及其影响程度的混合预测模型。该模型以二项Logit模型为主体结构,兼用模糊逻辑对主观、定性变量进行处理,在显著性分析的基础上,筛选对疏散决策行为影响较大的解释变量并确定其在效用函数中的系数。采用美国Andrew飓风的疏散行为调查数据,估计和测试了该混合模型,并将其与以往相关模型的预测结果进行了对比。分析结果表明:该混合模型对测试样本的预测准确度达到了85%,相对于以往的疏散行为预测模型,对于调查数据具有更高的拟合度和更好的预测效果。In order to predict the personnel decision behaviors in potential dangerous areas about participating evacuation or not reasonably, a hybrid model was presented based on fuzzy logic and discrete choice model, which could reflect the influencing factors and degrees for evacuation decision behavior. The binary Logit model structure was used to construct the hybrid model, and fuzzy logic was adopted to capture subjective and qualitative variables. Based on the analysis of significance, the influencing factors of evacuation decision behavior and their responsible coefficients in utility function were determined. The evacuation behavior surveying data after hurricane Andrew in America were used to estimate and test the hybrid model, and its result was compared with that of relative models. Analysis result indicates that the prediction accuracy of the hybrid model reaches 85%, so the hybrid model has a higher fitting degree and a better prediction efficiency.

关 键 词：交通管理 交通疏散 人口估计 模糊逻辑 二项Logit模型 

分 类 号：U491.14[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]