房地产价格影响因素的实证研究  

Empirical Research about Factors Influencing Real Estate Price

作　　者：周海波[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《海南大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2009年第5期537-543,共7页Journal of Hainan University （Humanities & Social Sciences）

基　　金：国家社科基金(06BJL016);教育部重点研究基地重大项目(08JJD790120)

摘　　要：通过模型推导,选取人口数量、物价指数、收入水平、贷款利率水平及季节虚拟变量5个指标作为方程初始导入自变量,与房地产价格进行初步多元线性回归分析;并检验和修正了回归结果的自相关和多重共线性,通过自变量的分析与筛选,按照逐步回归法,最终选取出3个自变量与房地产价格建立多元线性回归方程,找出影响我国房地产价格波动的最主要因素即人口数量和物价指数,并结合我国情况对其进行原因和结论分析。Through model derivation, this paper selects five indicators, including population, price index, income level, loan interest rates and seasonal dummy variables, as initial independent delivery variables of the equation and real estate prices as dependent variables for preliminary multiple linear regression analysis. After testing and revising autocorrelation and muhi-colinearity by stepwise regression method, it analyzes and filtrate independent variables, and ultimately establishes multiple linear regression equation with three independent variables and real estate prices. It finds out that the main influencing factors on China＇ s real estate price fluctuations are population size and price index. Finally, combining with China＇ s situation, the paper analyzes the reasons and conclusions.

关 键 词：房地产价格 影响因素 实证研究 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]