全球热带海表温度异常的POP预报模型  

A POP PREDICTION MODEL OF SSTA IN THE GLOBAL TROPICAL OCEANS

作　　者：段安民[1] 吴洪宝[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京气象学院气象学系

出　　处：《南京气象学院学报》1998年第3期346-353,共8页Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology

基　　金：国家"九五"重中之重项目

摘　　要：在对全球热带海表温度异常（ＳＳＴＡ）进行主振荡型（ＰＯＰ）分析的基础之上综合考虑大尺度海洋运动状况和长期预报的特征引入了相位划分预报方案，将典型ＰＯＰ模态进行相位划分并综合考虑它们的相位承替规律预报ＳＳＴＡ未来发展趋势，独立样本事后预报结果证实相位划分预报方案能提供较好的预报信息。Based on the POP analysis of SSTA in the global tropical oceans , we introduced a phase-categorizing scheme by considering the features of large-scale ocean's movements as well as long-range prediction, determined the phases of those typical eigenmodes, and got some phase evolution rules for predicting the development trend of SSTA. The independent sample hindcast shows that the scheme is reasonable fairly good.

关 键 词：海表温度异常 主振荡型 相位划分 预报模型 

分 类 号：P732.31[天文地球—海洋科学]