基于Agent的居民就医选择建模与仿真  

Agent-based Modeling and Simulation Research into Residents Healthcare Choice

作　　者：程贲[1] 李兴兵[1] 鲁延京[1] 谭跃进[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院,湖南长沙410073

出　　处：《系统工程》2009年第9期96-101,共6页Systems Engineering

摘　　要：基于Agent建模仿真是医疗服务领域中问题研究和政策分析的一种新方法。在分析目前医疗领域中居民就医选择现状的基础上，基于Agent的建模方法，对医疗系统中的主要对象——医院、社区医疗服务机构、居民的行为进行了建模，开发了基于Anylogie的居民就医选择的仿真原型，研究了居民的就医选择问题，分析扩大不同医疗机构的费用差距及增加区域内社区医疗服务机构数量两项政策对居民就医选择的影响。实验结果说明通过调节医院与社区诊所的医疗服务的价格比，能够影响居民就医选择，但增加医院的医疗服务的价格会造成部分低收入居民无法就医；区域内社区诊所与医院的比例在2～4倍时，对降低居民无法就医的比例是有效的。Agent-based modeling and simulation is a new methodology in the field of healthcare service research and relevant policy analysis. Applying agent-based modeling and simulation methodology, we research the problem of residents~ health- care selection and construct health service models for hospitals, residents and communities. Applying the simulation tool-- AnyLogic, we analyze the effects of two policies on residents~ health care choice, which involve enlarging the price gap of different healthcare institutions and increasing the number of healthcare service agencies in communities within a region. The experiment result illustrates that changing the cost ratio of hospital and community .service has a significant impact on residents~ selection decision, while the rising of the price of healthcare service makes residents with low income unable to afford the expense of healthcare service, and that the proper ratio of the number of community health service agencies to that of hospitals within a certain region is 2 to 4.

关 键 词：就医选择 基于Agent建模 医疗政策分析Anylogic 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]