厦门湾海上溢油风险的评估与分析  

Analysis and risk assessment of the oil spill in Xiamen Bay

作　　者：王君[1] 潘伟然[1] 张国荣[1] 马腾[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学海洋学系,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《台湾海峡》2009年第4期534-539,共6页Journal of Oceanography In Taiwan Strait

摘　　要：本文使用数理统计与概率的相关知识,并且根据厦门湾近几年进出船舶的统计资料,估算了未来几年中厦门湾海域船舶突发性溢油事故发生的概率.结果表明,厦门湾未来几年的溢油发生概率为0.27次/a.然后运用数值模拟方法对假设的突发溢油事故中溢油的扩展进行预测分析并结合建立的欧拉潮流场对油膜的漂移路径进行研究,分别从高潮、低潮、涨急、落急四个时刻开始计算溢油路径,结果显示油膜影响范围可从海沧南部延伸至浯村屿东部,根据模拟结果可对突发溢油的风险进行评估.Based on recent data of ship activities from Xiamen maritime affairs, we estimate the probability of oil spill occurring in Xiamen Bay in coming years using probability theory and statistics methods. The results show that the oil spill probability is 0.27 times/a. Thus, the numerical simulation is employed to forecast and analyze the expansion of the hypothetical oil spill incidents and the path of the oil spills by the help of Euler trend field. The paths is simulated in 4 phases at high tide,low tide, flood tide and ebb tide. It shows that the sphere of influence is from the south of Haicang to the east of the Wucun Island. So, the risk can be assessed by simulation when there is oil spill.

关 键 词：物理海洋学 突发性溢油 概率估算 扩散 漂移 

分 类 号：P731[天文地球—海洋科学]