中国经济平稳增长路径下的最优财政支农支出规模分析——基于拉姆赛-卡斯-库普曼模型的经验研究  

the Opitmal Government Expenditure for Supporting Agriculture On the Smooth Path of China's Economic Growth——An Empirical Study Based on the Model of Ramsey,Cass and Koopmans

作　　者：刘宏杰[1,2] 苏铁成[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财贸所,北京100836 [2]唐山市财政局,河北唐山063000

出　　处：《华南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2009年第4期64-69,共6页Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金项目(20090450519)

摘　　要：随着中国经济的快速发展,财政支农支出规模不断扩大。文章在拉姆赛-卡斯-库普曼模型的基础上,根据1978—2006年中国最终消费、资本形成总额、进出口总额和财政收支数据,运用计量经济学和最优化理论对中国经济平稳增长路径下的财政支农支出进行了经验研究。通过MATLAB计算可知,从现在到2010年,要实现中国经济的平稳增长,最终消费支出、资本形成总额和进出口总额分别为147200亿元、172040亿元和331460亿元,最优财政支农支出规模为4958.7亿元。With the growing up of China＇ s economy, government expenditure for supporting agriculture increases rapidly. On the basis of the model of Ramsey, Cass and Koopmans, this thesis analyzes the data of final consumption expenditures, gross capital formation and total value of imports and exports detailedly during the course of 1978--2006. The econometric and linear programming theorem are introduced to investigate the government expenditure for supporting agriculture on the stable path of China＇ s economic growth. The article suggests that final consumption expenditures, gross capital formation and total value of imports and exports should be 14720 billion yuan, 17204 billion yuan and 33146 billion yuan from 2006 to 2010 in order to achieve the stable growth of economy in China. Simultaneously,we can figure out the optimal government expenditure for supporting agriculture which is 495.87 billion yuan through the calculation of Matrix Laboratory.

关 键 词：消费支出 资本形成总额 进出口 财政支农支出 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]