陕西未来50年区域旱涝气候预测研究  

PREDICTION OF DROUGHT AND FLOOD IN FUTURE 5O YEARS IN SHAANXI PROVINCE

作　　者：栗珂[1] 高炬[2] 叶殿秀[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省气象科学研究所,西安710015 [2]陕西省气象台

出　　处：《灾害学》1998年第3期23-27,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：中国科学院KY85-10-3课题

摘　　要：用陕西省近526a的旱涝等级资料，根据超低频气候振动理论和尺度对应原理，通过旱涝气候对天体物理、太阳活动等周期，特别是ENSO对天体物理显著敏感的周期响应关系的物理统计分析，选取周期概率显著的周期，进行外延叠加集成预测，给出了未来50a陕西省不同区域旱涝趋势的预测结果．In this paper, periods of high probability of drought and flood are selected and extended superimposed integrated predictions are made based on classed information of drought and flood in the past 526 years in Shaanxi province, vibration theory of super low frequency climate and scale principle and physical statistical analysis on the relation of the drought and flood climate to astrophysics and period of solar activity, especially the correlation of ENSO with the sensitive period of astrophysics. The predictions of drought and flood trend are made for the future 50 years in different zones in Sbaanxi province.

关 键 词：陕西 气候变化 干旱 水灾 洪涝 气候预测 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P467