农机制造业战略投资决策的实物期权分析  

Analysis of Real Option on Agricultural Machinery Manufacturing Strategic Investment Decision-making

作　　者：谢靖宇[1] 王五祥[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理学院,天津300072 [2]天津外国语学院国际商学院,天津300270

出　　处：《农机化研究》2009年第11期10-12,共3页Journal of Agricultural Mechanization Research

基　　金：河北省科技厅软科学项目(074572287)

摘　　要：农业机械化是实现农业现代化的根本保证,"三农"对农机制造业产品的需求具有较大的不确定性。为此,运用实物期权方法研究不确定条件下农机制造业的战略投资决策最佳投资时点选择问题,利用案例说明在净现值大于零时立刻执行投资决策未必是最优的,投资者具有延迟期权等,克服了传统的折现现金流投资估价方法的不足。同时,对影响投资阈值的相关影响因素与多项目条件下的实物期权决策进行了分析,对投资决策具有指导意义。The fundamental way out for agriculture lies in mechanization, the demand for the agricultural machinery goods by the rural areas and agriculture and farmers have greater uncertainty. In this paper, the real options method was used to research the machinery manufacturing strategic investment decision - making under uncertainty condition, through case illustrating that invest at once may not be optimal when NPV is greater than zero, investors have such as delay options. The related factors which affect investment threshold and multi -project real options decision -making was analyzed and has guiding significance for investment decisions.

关 键 词：实物期权 农机制造业 投资阈值 期望理论 不确定性 

分 类 号：S23-01[农业科学—农业机械化工程]