海河流域气象和水文降水资料对比分析及时空变异  

Comparison and Spatial-temporal Variability of Daily Precipitation Data of Weather Stations and Rain Gauges in Haihe River Basin

作　　者：褚健婷[1,2] 夏军[1] 许崇育[3] 李璐[1,2] 王中根[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院陆地水循环与地表过程重点实验室地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100039 [3]奥斯陆大学

出　　处：《地理学报》2009年第9期1083-1092,共10页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(40730632);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-126);国家科技支撑计划(2006BAB14B07-01)~~

摘　　要：选用海河流域上国家气象局30个气象站1958-2007年共50年的日降水资料,以及水文部门248个雨量站1995-2004年共10年的资料,采用线性回归、5年滑动平均、Mann-Kendall趋势分析、Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验、Z检验和F检验等方法,在充分考虑两套降水资料优势的基础上,分析了海河流域降水的时空变化特征。发现:(1)海河流域气象站和雨量站的年降水量基本都符合正态分布,其均值和方差在统计意义上相等;两套资料的相关程度较高,气象站日降水资料可以用来延长水文站资料;(2)在1958-2007年,除春季降水量略有增加外,海河流域的降水整体上呈减少趋势,夏季和全年减少趋势非常明显,而且1980年后呈加速减少;(3)海河流域夏季和全年的降水分布形势相似,以太行山和燕山为界,分为山前多雨带、山前平原区少雨带以及山后少雨带,而且降水从南向北,从沿海到内陆逐渐减少;冬季水汽含量最少,基本上呈南多北少的分布;春秋季的分布特征相似,表现为冬夏季的过渡状态。近50年来,五台山地区和太行山前的部分地区降水减少趋势明显。In this paper,the precipitation data from 30 weather stations for 1958-2007 and 248 rain gauges for 1995-2004 are examined and compared using linear regression,5-year moving average,Mann-Kendall trend analysis,Kolmogorov-Smirnov test,Z test and F test methods; the WS data are used to extend the short record of RG data series; the temporal and spatial variations of precipitation in the Haihe River basin are studied. The results show that：（1） The precipitation of 1958-2007 has been decreasing except for the spring. The decline trend is significant in summer,and this trend is stronger after the 1980s; （2） The annual precipitation from both WS and RG records are normally distributed,with minor difference in the mean value and variance. In addition,their correlation degrees are higher,and it is statistically feasible to extend the precipitation of RG by weather station precipitation; （3） The temporal and spatial patterns of summer and annual precipitation in the Haihe River Basin are similar：in the piedmont of the Taihang Mountains and Yanshan Mountains there exists a rainfall rich zone,while on the leeward slope of the mountains and in the plain area there is less rainfall. In addition,the rainfall declines from the south to the north,and from the coast to the inland; winter sees the least water vapor and less precipitation in the north than in the south; while spring and autumn often witness a transition from winter to summer. In recent 50 years,the declining trend is most significant around the Wutaishan station,as well as some regions in the piedmont,and the changing trends are different in different seasons.

关 键 词：海河 气候变化 降水 MK方法 Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验 Z检验 F检验 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]