农作物产量损失风险水平实证及影响因素分析--基于第二次全国农业普查数据的探讨  

An exponential analysis on the crop productivity risk and influencing factors——Based on the discussion on the 2nd National Agricultural Census

作　　者：杨汭华[1] 王丽红[1] 鲜祖德[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学,北京100193

出　　处：《保险研究》2009年第10期102-108,共7页Insurance Studies

基　　金：第二次全国农业普查研究资助课题的部分成果,项目编号(N1503);国家自然科学基金资助课题(编号70973125)的前期研究成果

摘　　要：本文采用非参数估计的信息扩散模型测算了我国粮食主产区水稻、玉米、小麦和棉花产量损失风险水平。研究结果表明,粮食单产平均损失风险大于30%的概率很小,故单产水平一般保持在趋势产量70%以上的水平上,并且不同区域同一作物和不同作物之间的风险损失概率存在差异。由此认为我国农作物生产具有风险可保性,这是我国开展农业保险的客观依据。同时,认为农业生产基本条件是重要的风险管理措施,运用农业普查资料分析了农田水利条件、农业机械化水平、保护性农业水平及土地经营规模等因素的基本变化对农作物产量损失风险的影响。基于此,提出了制定有差别费率的区域保险计划、创造种植业保险顺利开展条件的有关考虑。The paper applied the information diffusion model of non-parametric estimation to project the level of productivity risks for cereals, rice, corn and wheat at major grain-producing area. The results indicated that the probability for the average grain unit yield risk exceeding 30% was very small, and the unit yield ordinarily stayed above the 70% of the yield trend. Moreover, the risk probability of a grain at different areas or the risk probability of different grains varied to some extent. Based on these statistics, the paper held that the farm produce risk was in- surable, which was the foundation for developing agricultural insurance in China. The paper also regarded agricul- tural production conditions as an important risk management measure. It analyzed the impact on crop productivity risks by factors such as farmland water conservancy situations, agricultural mechanization level, protective agricul- tural level and farmland operation scale, based on the results of the National Census. As a response, it put forth suggestions to apply regional insurance plans with differentiated premium rate and create favorable conditions for the rolling-out of crop insurance.

关 键 词：农作物产量 粮食主产区 风险损失概率 第二次农业普查 农业保险 

分 类 号：F840.66[经济管理—保险]