基于灰色模型的汽车保有量预测  

Study on the Forecast of Cars Number Based on the Gray Model

作　　者：田其冲[1] 郑卫国[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学计算机科学与技术学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《电脑与电信》2009年第9期60-61,64,共3页Computer & Telecommunication

摘　　要：根据某地区相关的统计数据,运用多元回归分析法,对该地区影响私人汽车发展的主要因素进行分析,对其保有量的发展趋势做出科学判断。然后,运用灰色系统理论,建立了该地区私人汽车保有量的预测模型GM(1,1)模型及其修正模型,找出其中的相关性和函数关系,从而对该地区私人汽车保有量进行定量的分析和预测。According to the relevant statistical data of a region, this paper makes an analysis of the major factors that impact on the development of private cars number and its trends in the region using the methods of linear regression. And then, with the gray system theory, the forecast model of private cars number based on GM （1,1） and its correction model are established. We can make the quantitative analysis and forecast the private cars number with the pertinence and function relation in the model.

关 键 词：私家车 经济指标 线性回归 灰色系统 预测 

分 类 号：U464.134.4[机械工程—车辆工程] O211.67[交通运输工程—载运工具运用工程]