组合预测模型在安徽省人均GDP预测中的应用  

Application of Combination Forecasting Model in Forecasting the Per Capita GDP of Anhui Province

作　　者：张志朝[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学,安徽蚌埠233041

出　　处：《广西财经学院学报》2009年第5期32-35,共4页Journal of Guangxi University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：本文以安徽省1990年至2007年安徽省人均GDP为样本,在三个单一预测模型的基础上建立了非最优正权组合预测模型。为了提高预测精度,引入最优线性组合预测模型,将几个单一预测模型有机地组合起来。综合各个预测模型的优缺点,通过使组合预测误差平方和最小,确定各单一预测方法的权重系数,得到最优线性组合预测模型,并对未来5年安徽省人均GDP进行了预测。研究表明该模型在实际预测工作中具有较好的实用性。By using samples of per capita GDP of Anhui Province from 1990 to 2007, and based on three single forecasting models, a non - optimal positive weight combination forecasting model was set up. In order to improve the forecasting accuracy, the optimal linear combination of forecasting model was introduced and some single forecasting models were organically combined. Through integrating advantages and disadvantages of each forecasting model, making the combination forecasting error sum squares minimum, and determining the weight coefficient of each forecasting method, the optimal linear combination forecasting model was set up. Using this model, per capita GDP for the next 5 years of Anhui Province were predicted. The research showed that the model had good practicality in the actual forecasting work.

关 键 词：人均GDP 最优线性组合预测模型 非最优正权组合预测方法 

分 类 号：F224.9[经济管理—国民经济]