基于模糊综合法的加气站风险评价研究  

Study on Risk Evaluation of CNG Filling Station Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

作　　者：侯晓犇[1] 张鹏[1] 陈利琼[1] 刘永茜 石红艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学,四川成都610500 [2]中国石油工程设计有限公司西南分公司,四川成都610017

出　　处：《天然气与石油》2009年第5期14-17,24,共5页Natural Gas and Oil

摘　　要：加气站风险影响因素众多,人员素质、设施流程、站点环境等都可能影响加气站安全,目前加气站风险评价主要采用定性分析法,由于在评估过程中主观性过大,难以保证评价结果的准确性。针对问题,首次提出加气站风险的模糊综合评价方法,在分析模糊综合评价原理的基础上,论述其在加气站风险评价中的应用价值和评价流程,给出模糊评价矩阵和权重集的计算方法,建立了加气站的三级因素风险评价指标体系。通过定性分析在CZX加气站风险评价中的应用,验证了模糊综合评价的准确性。根据风险程度值对加气站进行了风险等级划分,给出了风险缓解措施。There are a lot of factors affecting CNG filling station risk,which is always evaluated by qualitative analysis. It is difficult often to ensure the accuracy of the evaluation results due to large subjectivity in evaluation process. Based on this,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is creatively developed for CNG filling station. Discussed are application value and risk evaluation process of the method,introduced the calculation method of fuzzy evaluation matrix and weight sets and established is the three-level factor index system for CNG filling station risk evaluation. Through the application example of CZX station risk assessment,the accuracy of this method is verified. According to the risk value obtained in evaluation process,risk levels of CNG filling station are classified and risk mitigation measures are put forward.

关 键 词：加气站 风险评价 模糊综合评价 风险缓解 

分 类 号：U473.8[机械工程—车辆工程]