研发产业与上海经济增长的协整与因果互动机制研究  

Research on the Interactive Mechanism of Cointegration and Cause & Effect between R&D Industry and Shanghai Economic Growth

作　　者：张战仁[1] 杜德斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心,上海200062

出　　处：《软科学》2009年第10期91-94,共4页Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40871067);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(08JJD840184)

摘　　要：以上海市经济增长为被解释变量,分别以被国外重要检索工具检索的论文数量、专利授权数量、技术市场成交金额及三者的合成指标为解释变量,基于协整和Granger因果检验模型,对上海市的研发产业与经济增长之间的协整与因果互动机制进行了实证研究。结果发现:虽然研发产业对上海经济增长有一定的贡献作用,但是受发展的机制、体制影响,研发产业与上海经济发展的良性互动机制还未建立,两者基本不构成Granger因果关系。The paper takes the economic growth rate of the city as the explained variable, while taking the number of scientific papers searched by important searching tools abroad, the number of invention patents authorized and the transaction value of technological market as explaining variables. Based on the model of cointegration analysis and Granger cause ＆ effect test, this paper analyzes the interactive mechanism of cointegration and cause ＆ effect mechanism between Shanghai R＆D industry and its economic growth. Results show that although the contribution of R＆D industry to Shanghai~ economic growth is comparatively useful, the interactive mechanism between Shanghai R＆D industry and its economic development hasnt been built due to the influence of system and policy, and there is no Granger cause ＆ effect relationship between them.

关 键 词：研发产业 经济增长 协整分析 GRANGER因果检验 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济]