ECMWF产品逐日降水客观预报业务系统  

Operational Objective Forecast System of Day-to-Day Precipitation Based on ECMWF Products

作　　者：钱莉[1,2] 杨晓玲 殷玉春 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾开放实验室,兰州730020 [2]甘肃省武威市气象局,武威733000

出　　处：《气象科技》2009年第5期513-519,共7页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：甘肃省气象局2007年重点科研项目"数值预报产品在河西精细化预报中的应用"资助

摘　　要：选用ECMWF格点场资料,用差分法、天气诊断、因子组合等方法构造能反映本地天气动力学特征的预报因子库,对预报因子和预报量进行线性（0,1）标准化处理,采用PRESS准则初选因子,用最优子集回归建立0~120 h降水预报方程,用多因子概率权重回归预测其降水概率。预报系统投入业务应用,检验证明预报效果较好,提供了有效的地市级客观预报指导产品。业务系统与MICAPS对接,实现全自动化,输出的预报产品客观、定量。By selecting of the ECMWF grid fields and using of such methods as differential method,synoptic diagnosis,factor combination,etc,the predictor database that can reflect the local characteristics of synoptic dynamics was established.The ＂0,1＂ linearization was conducted on the predictors and predictands,and the initial selection was based on the PRESS（Prediction Residual Error Sum of Squares） criterion.The 0-120 hour precipitation prediction equation was established with the optimal subset regression method,and the precipitation probability was predicted with the multi-factor probability weighting regression method.The forecast system has been put into operation,and the verification proved that the forecasting performance and the provided prefecture-level guidance objective forecasting products are satisfactory.The forecast system can be connected with MICAPS to realize the high-level automation and assure the objective and quantitative forecast products.

关 键 词：ECMWF格点资料 最优子集回归 降水概率 分县预报 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S427[农业科学—植物保护]