月动力延伸预报产品在陕西月降水预测中的释用  

Interpretation and Application of Monthly Dynamical Extended Range Forecast Products in Shaanxi Province

作　　者：王娜[1] 方建刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省气象局气候中心,西安710015

出　　处：《气象科技》2009年第5期520-522,共3页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200706029);国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2004CB720208);陕西省气象局重点项目"省级滚动预测业务系统及国家动力气候模式统计降尺度解释应用研究"资助

摘　　要：应用1983-2005年国家动力气候模式产品,进行了月动力延伸预报产品解释应用预测试验。结果表明：月动力延伸预报产品解释应用对青藏高原东北侧的陕西地区月降水趋势有较好的预测能力,但夏、秋季PS评分较高,冬、春季PS评分较低,对大气环流季节突变月份预测的准确率具有不稳定性。Based on the dynamical extended range forecast products from 1983 to 2005,the forecast experiment on the interpretation and application of monthly dynamical extended range forecast products was carried out.The results show that the method has better prediction capability for monthly precipitation forecasting in Shaanxi Province,which is located on the northeast side of the Tibetan Plateau.The PS score is higher in summer and autumn and lower in winter and spring;meanwhile,it is unstable during the period of seasonal transition of atmospheric circulation.

关 键 词：月动力延伸预报 降水 解释应用 PS评分 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P458.121.1