人工增雨作业条件预测方法研究  

A Forecasting Method for Seeding Conditions of Rain Enhancement

作　　者：袁野[1] 李爱华[1] 邵洋 周述学[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省人工影响天气办公室,合肥230031

出　　处：《气象科技》2009年第5期621-626,共6页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：安徽省气象局KG200706项目资助

摘　　要：从国家级人工影响天气业务指导产品的卫星资料反演产品和模式产品中选择与安徽省自动雨量站1 h雨量和3 h雨量显著相关的产品作为因子,利用Fisher方法分别建立了安徽省各个季节各自动雨量站1 h和3 h的人工增雨作业条件二级判别方程,定量给出是否具备可作业条件的判断方法。回报试验表明,1 h作业条件判别方程的准确率可达到70%左右,3 h作业条件判别方程的判别准确率在50%以上,方程均有较好的预报准确率,可以用于人工增雨作业条件预测业务,但春秋季和夏季的空报率相对较高,需要在业务应用中引起注意。The factors which are significantly correlated with the 1 hour and 3 h rainfall from the rainfall data of automatic precipitation stations over Anhui Province are selected from the satellite products or model products in the national directive products for weather artificial modification.With the Fisher norm method and the factors,the equations of 1 hour and 3 hour operation condition discrimination are established for all seasons and automatic precipitation stations to judge quantitatively whether there are favorable operation conditions for seeding.The equations are tested and verified with history data,and the results indicate that the forecast accuracy of 1 hour and 3 hour seeding conditions is 70% or so and over 50% respectively,which means that the equations have satisfactory accuracy and can be used to predict seeding conditions.But it has to be noted that the no-hitting rate is relatively high in spring,summer and autumn.

关 键 词：国家级指导产品 Fisher方法 人工增雨 作业条件 预测 

分 类 号：P481[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S223.91[农业科学—农业机械化工程]