基于FORCCHN的未来东北森林生态系统碳储量模拟  

Simulation of Carbon Stocks of Forest Ecosystems under the Future Climatic scenario in Northeast China Based on FORCCHN

作　　者：赵俊芳[1] 延晓冬[2] 贾根锁[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候环境重点实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《地理科学》2009年第5期690-696,共7页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(973计划)(2006CB400500);国家自然科学基金资助项目(40675408)资助

摘　　要：以东北森林为研究对象，应用中国森林生态系统碳收支模型FORCCHN，模拟该区森林生态系统碳储量未来可能的时空变化。结果表明：2003—2049年东北森林生态系统可能仍将具有明显碳汇功能，但强度呈下降趋势；土壤碳储量的变化趋势是从增长到饱和然后逐渐降低的过程，植被碳储量则基本上随时间变化呈逐渐增长趋势。空间上，该区土壤碳储量都有不同程度增加或降低，但植被碳储量都在不同程度的增加；土壤碳储量可能在植被碳储量之前得到饱和，因而东北森林生态系统碳吸收能力的降低主要是由土壤碳储量的减少造成的，而植被碳的增加将会在一定时间内减缓这一过程。The probable trajectories of carbon stocks of forest ecosystems under the future climatic scenario in Northeast China were simulated using forest carbon budget model FORCCHN based on growth process of individual trees. The FORCCHN was driven by the future data of FGOALS model. The results showed that ： （ 1 ） forest ecosystems in Northeast China were expected to be a weak sink from 2003 to 2049. （2） Carbon stocks in soil showed a trend of increase before reaching saturation states and decrease afterward. However, carbon stocks in vegetation showed an increasing trend in the future. Spatially, carbon storages in soil in different regions increased or decreased on different degrees. But, scopes of decreasing were bigger than those of increasing. And carbon storages in vegetation behaved increasing trends. （3） Carbon stocks in soil may reach saturation states before carbon stocks in vegetation, so soil carbon stocks may decrease. However, increase of carbon stocks in vegetation may delay the appearance of saturation states.

关 键 词：东北地区 森林生态系统 碳储量 未来气候情景 

分 类 号：S718.5[农业科学—林学]