树轮资料(1511～1954)太阳活动的多尺度分析——EMD方法的应用  

Analysis on multi-scale cycles of solar activity with the data of tree-ring(1511-1954)——Application of EMD

作　　者：张真真[1] 林振山[1] 杜建丽[1] 刘会玉[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏南京210046

出　　处：《地理科学》2009年第5期709-714,共6页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金课题(20060139018)资助

摘　　要：用EMD对Stuiver等提供的树轮^14C资料进行分析，结果为：①得到太阳活动的准3、6、11、22、44、110、200、300a的周期；从趋势项中可以得到准600a甚至更长的周期波动；②可以判断太阳活动经典的极小期，与公认的极小期有一定的滞后性。从树轮^14C含量的变化趋势中可以判断从1954～2100年的太阳活动变化逐渐变强，从2100—2350年太阳活动逐渐开始变弱；③从每个尺度周期波动的时变特征中可以得到，即使在太阳活动的极小期，太阳活动依然存在频率和强度不同的周期波动。In this article, Stuiver＇ s 14C tree-ring data is dealt with EMD, and the results showed that： 1 ） The classic quasi cycles 3a, 6a, 11a, 22a, 44a, 110a, 178a, 296a of solar activities are gained; even longer cycle fluctuations may exist in the residual trend（RES） 2） the Maunder Minimum, the Dalton Minimum, and the Spoerer Minimum can be analysed, and all these gained minima present a delay than those recognized ones. In addition, the changes of 14C content in the tree-ring in the trend can be determined the information that solar activity may become strong from 1954 to 2100; and from 2100 to 2350 the solar activity may gradually become weak. 3 ）, even in a minimum, solar activity still exist different cycles with variable frequency and intensity from the fluctuations characteristics of each time-scale.

关 键 词：树轮14C EMD 准波动周期 太阳活动极小期 趋势 

分 类 号：P532[天文地球—古生物学与地层学]